美东时间周三下午2点,美联储10月FOMC会议声明维持利率不变,符合市场预期。称经济温和扩张,就业增长步伐放缓,失业率保持稳定,并对12月是否加息保持开放态度。21世纪经济报道附上FOMC会议声明中英文全文。
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady. Nonetheless, labor market indicators, on balance, show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved slightly lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
9月会议以来,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)得到的信息显示,经济活动正在温和扩张。家庭消费支出和企业固定投资已温和增长,住房领域进一步改善;然而,净出口保持疲软。就业增速有所放缓,但失业率稳固降低,但总体而言,劳动力市场的指标显示,劳动力资源利用不足的状况自年初以来已有所减少。通胀持续低于美联储长期目标水平,部分反映了能源价格以及非能源进口价格下降。基于市场的通胀指标趋向更低位,基于调查的更长期通胀预期仍保持稳定。
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring global economic and financial developments. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
与美联储法定职责相一致,FOMC委员会旨在促进就业水平最大化和价格稳定。[9月声明该位置有一段有关全球经济下行对美国通胀造成下行压力的描述,10月被删除]委员会预计,在适当宽松的货币政策下,经济活动将温和扩张,劳动力市场指标继续朝着美联储认为与其双重使命相一致的水平发展。委员会仍认为,经济活动前景和劳动力市场风险接近平衡,但正在关注全球经济与金融的进展[9月声明描述为:但正在关注海外局势的发展]。委员会预计,通胀将在短期内维持近期的低水平,但预期随着劳动力市场进一步改善,能源及进口价格走低等暂时性因素消退,中期通胀将逐步增长到2%的水平。委员会继续密切关注通胀的发展情况。
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.
委员会重申,为支持就业最大化和物价稳定,将联邦基金利率维持在0-0.25%仍然合适。至于下一轮会议是否是合适的加息时间[9月描述为:至于将利率在此目标范围内维持多久],委员会将评估实际与预期进展,看是否朝着就业最大化和2%的通胀目标方向前进。委员会在评估过程中,将考虑各种信息,包括劳动力市场情况、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、金融领域和国际市场的发展等。委员会预期,当劳动力市场出现一些进一步改善,并有理由相信中期通胀将重回2%的目标时,将是提高利率范围的适当时机。
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
委员会将维持美联储持有机构债券、机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)和到期国债拍卖后再投资本金的滚动投资政策。该政策下,委员会将持有大量长期证券,有助于维持市场宽松的金融环境。
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
当委员会决定开始移除宽松政策时,将采取与就业最大化和通胀2%的长期目标相一致的平衡的方案。目前,委员会预计,即使就业和通胀率接近目标水平,经济状况仍可能令美联储将联邦基金目标利率维持在低位一段时间,低于委员会认为正常的长期水平。
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.
FOMC货币政策活动中投票赞成的包括:主席耶伦;副主席杜德利;理事布雷纳德;芝加哥联储主席埃文斯;副主席费希尔;亚特兰大主席洛克哈特;理事鲍威尔;理事塔鲁洛和旧金山联储主席威廉姆斯。里奇蒙德联储主席莱克不赞成维持利率不变而主张加息25个基点,对利率决议投下反对票。
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