CBN Special丨China Business 2021 in Recap

China Business Now李莹亮,见习记者张然 2021-12-31 20:33

CBN年终特辑:2021中国经济大事回顾

Hello everyone, welcome to CBN Special. Today is the last day of 2021. In this episode, we have selected ten of the most important events in China’s economy and society over the past year which had tremendous impacts on ourselves and the world. Sit back and take a listen.

1. CPC celebrated its 100th year anniversary

建党百年

China held a grand ceremony on July 1 to mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, said there would be no New China without the CPC, which profoundly transformed the nation. Xi announced that China has realized the first centenary goal – building a moderately prosperous society in all respects – when he delivered an important speech at the gathering. 

In November, the CPC held its sixth plenum and adopted a key resolution summarising its 100 year history and enshrined Xi’s role as leader, as well as determine the party’s direction for the next few decades. This pivotal document is only the third of its kind since the party’s foundation in 1921. 

2021年7月1日上午,庆祝中国共产党成立100周年大会在北京天安门广场隆重举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平发表重要讲话,总结了中国共产党在过去一百年间的四个伟大成就。中国共产党团结带领中国人民,浴血奋战、百折不挠,创造了新民主主义革命的伟大成就。中国共产党团结带领中国人民,自力更生、发愤图强,创造了社会主义革命和建设的伟大成就。中国共产党团结带领中国人民,解放思想、锐意进取,创造了改革开放和社会主义现代化建设的伟大成就。中国共产党团结带领中国人民,自信自强、守正创新,统揽伟大斗争、伟大工程、伟大事业、伟大梦想,创造了新时代中国特色社会主义的伟大成就。

11月8日,党的十九届六中全会在京召开,此次会议重点研究全面总结党的百年奋斗的重大成就和历史经验问题,肩负着承前启后、继往开来的伟大使命。中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治局向全会作工作报告,并就《中共中央关于党的百年奋斗重大成就和历史经验的决议(讨论稿)》向全会作了说明。这是党自1921年成立以来的历史总结,涉及主要政治人物、关键成就、吸取的教训以及未来政策的方向。六中全会的决议将是一份至关重要的政治文件,为党未来几十年指明方向。这也是中国共产党成立100年来的第三份“历史决议”。

2. China’s action in responding to climate change

应对气候变化的中国答卷

In 2021, biological diversity and climate change are two of the key words of the year too. In October, the COP15 on Biological Diversity was held in China’s Kunming city, adopting the “Kunming Declaration” calling for action to slow the loss of the world’s biodiversity. And one month later, COP26 began in Glasgow, Scotland. The climate conference finalized detailed implementation plans for the Paris Agreement. China and the U.S. signed a joint declaration to combat climate change.

10月,《生物多样性公约》第十五次缔约方大会(COP15)第一阶段高级别会议在昆明举行,并通过了“昆明宣言”,做出对恢复生物多样性的承诺。10月31日至11月13日,《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十六次缔约方大会(COP26)在英国格拉斯哥召开。COP26完成了《巴黎协定》实施细则遗留问题谈判,为推动《巴黎协定》全面有效实施奠定了基础。

中国在10月发布《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》白皮书,又在COP26后与美国联合发布《中美关于在21世纪20年代强化气候行动的格拉斯哥联合宣言》,有效提升了各方合力应对气候变化的信心,为推动大会成功注入了动力。

3. Power crunch and electricity price reform

多地出现限电,电价改革势在必行

In line with China’s “30-60” carbon emission goals, Beijing finally rolled out electricity price reform as the central government tries to tackle an energy crunch. The country’s top economic planner has liberalised pricing for electricity generated from coal and that industrial and commercial users will all have to buy from the market. The floating range of the market-based electricity transaction prices are adjusted to a range of 20 percent up or down. The NDRC also requires local governments to prioritise supply of low-cost power for residents and agriculture.

China has set a binding “dual-control” target for overall energy consumption and to lower energy intensity by 13.5 percent in its latest five-year plan through 2025 in September. However, a new tone of pragmatism has been set for China’s decarbonization drive in 2021 following wide-scale power shortages across the country in the latter half of the year.

The top leadership made it clear in December’s central economic work conference that while unwavering efforts will be made to meet last year’s pledges of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060, the goals won’t be achieved overnight and there should be a pragmatic approach to push them forward.

9月16日,国家发改委印发《完善能源消费强度和总量双控制度方案》提出,到2025年,能耗双控制度更加健全,能源资源配置更加合理、利用效率大幅提高。“十四五”规划进一步提出完善能源消费总量和强度双控制度,重点控制化石能源消费,2025年单位GDP能耗和碳排放比2020年分别降低13.5%、18%,国务院将全国“双控”目标分解到了各地区,对“双控”工作进行了全面部署。

今年9月开始,中国多地限电动作不断,主要由于双控限产及电网负荷过大,电力缺口是根本原因。“限电”也波及至上市公司的日常经营,煤炭价格屡创新高,化工、建材等高耗能行业供给出现收缩,价格上涨。电价改革势在必行。10月12日,国家发改委公布《关于进一步深化燃煤发电上网电价市场化改革的通知》,将燃煤发电市场交易价格浮动范围扩大为原则上均不超过20%,推动工商业用户全部进入市场,按照市场价格购电,取消工商业目录销售电价。

同时,加快推进碳排放市场交易,4月,广州期货交易所在广州成立,是以碳排放为首个品种的创新型期货交易所,同时碳排放权期货、电力期货也是未来重要的研究方向。7月16日,全国碳市场在北京、上海、武汉三地同时开市,第一批交易正式开启。从交易机制看,全国碳排放交易所仍将采用和各区域试点一样以配额交易为主导、以核证自愿减排量为补充的双轨体系。

2021年中央经济工作会议提出,要正确认识和把握碳达峰碳中和,创造条件尽早实现能耗“双控”向碳排放总量和强度“双控”转变,加快形成减污降碳的激励约束机制。

4. Global pandemic and China’s zero-tolerance strategy

全球疫情持续,中国坚持“动态清零”

In the beginning of 2021, there were high hopes that with the release of the COVID-19 vaccines, our life, economy and investment will return to normal. But as the new variant Delta and then Omicron emerged one after another, hope turned to dread.

As of December 24, there were more than 276 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 5.37 million deaths from the pandemic worldwide. The Omicron variant had spread to at least 110 countries and regions, causing many countries to hit all-time high in number of infections. 

Despite sporadic flare-up over the year, China has sticked to its zero-tolerance strategy and try hard to keep the virus away of country to safeguard people’s health. The Chinese mainland has not had any local transmission of the Omicron variant.

As the global entered the second year of the pandemic that changed everything, China has largely brought the domestic spread of the infectious disease under control with its “zero tolerance” policy despite sporadic flare-ups over the year, and maintains that the strategy has been effective to deal with the more contagious Delta and Omicron varients.

China has provided more than 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to over 120 countries and international organizations, making it the world's top vaccine donor. The WHO estimates that around 8.6 billion doses of vaccines had been administered globally by December 23. However, there has been a severe disparity in vaccine distribution between rich and poor countries.

截至目前,新冠肺炎全球累计确诊病例超过2.8亿,累计死亡病例超过540万。变异毒株奥密克戎已传播到11个国家与地区。

在中国,西安的新一轮疫情牵动人心。截至12月30日24时,西安本轮疫情已累计确诊1278例病例。中国继续坚持“外防输入、内防反弹”的总策略不动摇,坚持常态化精准防控和局部应急处置相结合,坚持“动态清零”的总方针,以最快的速度、最小的代价控制疫情扩散蔓延。

在疫苗接种方面,根据世界卫生组织的数据,全球已完成超过86亿剂疫苗接种。根据国家卫生健康委员会数据,截至2021年12月29日,中国累计报告接种新冠病毒疫苗281011.8万剂次。此外,中国提出全球疫苗合作行动倡议等一系列重大倡议和举措,向120多个国家和国际组织提供超过20亿剂疫苗,占中国以外全球疫苗使用总量的1/3,成为对外提供疫苗最多的国家。

5. Economic recovery slows in the second half year

疫情下的经济复苏

In March, China set its economic growth rate at 6 percent for 2021. In the first quarter, China’s GDP grew by almost 20 percent year-on-year, as manufacturing, auto sales and consumer spending rebounded to pre-pandemic level due to government stimulus. China’s export expanded 60 percent in the first quarter as global demands recovered from the pandemic. 

But starting from the second quarter, China’s recovery slowed. The second quarter GDP growth dropped to 7.9 percent year-on-year, and third quarter expanded less than 5 percent, as parts of the country entered a power crunch because of a shortage of coal and local governments rushed to meet central government’s carbon emission targets. 

The official manufacturing PMI steadily declined from March, and even contracted to below 50 in September and October, the first time since the pandemic began. The economy was hit by rising raw material costs, production bottleneck and power rationing. China's factory activity in December unexpectedly expanded again. The official PMI edged up to 50.3 in December from 50.1 in November.

On the other hand, China’s factory gate prices grew at their fastest pace for 26 years. October’s PPI rose by 13.5 percent from a year earlier. The November number dropped slightly to 12.9 percent because of a government crackdown on commodity prices and ease of the power crisis. Growth of export in November went down to 21.4 percent, less than October’s 27 percent growth. Yet import unexpectedly surge 32 percent to $254 billion, suggesting consumers demands are rebounding.

China’s central bank cut reserve requirement ratio, or cash banks  must hold as reserve by 50 basis points in December to bolster the real economy, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan in liquidity. This is the second cut this year. 

3月5日,国务院总理李克强作政府工作报告中,提出2021年经济社会发展主要预期目标是GDP增长6%以上。2021年是“十四五”开局之年,一季度中国经济增长取得开门红,GDP同比增长近20%。中国外贸进出口数据同样亮眼,一季度进出口总值8.47万亿元人民币,比去年同期增长29.2%。

二季度开始,中国经济增长放缓,二季度录得7.9%增长,三季度仅为4.9%。制造业PMI数据从3月份开始下降,甚至9月份开始制造业PMI连续2个月处于收缩区间,主要受电力供应仍然紧张、部分原材料价格高位上涨等因素影响。12月,12月份,制造业PMI升至50.3%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,持续高于50%的临界点,显示出经济运行和市场预期的积极变化。

另一方面,10月份生产者价格指数PPI同比上涨13.5%,受国际输入性因素叠加国内主要能源和原材料供应偏紧影响。11月,随着保供稳价政策落实力度不断加大,煤炭、金属等能源和原材料价格快速上涨势头初步得到遏制,PPI涨幅有所回落,与居民消费价格指数CPI的“剪刀差”缩小。

外贸方面,据海关统计,以美元计,11月出口同比增长22%,比10月份27.1%有所放缓,但进口增长了31.7%,远超前值20.6%。进口走强标明消费者需求有所回升。

12月6日,中国人民银行决宣布今年第二次降准,下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点(不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构)。此次为全面降准,共计释放长期资金约1.2万亿元。

6.  Property sector cools under the “three red lines”

三道红线出台,房地产降温

2021 was the year China Evergrande Group became a household name for all the wrong reasons.

In the latter half of this year, China’s second-largest developer by sales has been locked in an intensifying battle to keep the lights on. Evergrande’s liquidity crisis stems from slumping sales in a cooling property market amid the central government’s ongoing clampdown on real estate speculation and excessive borrowing, including the August 2020 introduction of the “three red lines” policy, which curbs borrowing in the troubled sector. 

China has missed its customary "gold and silver months" for home sales this year, which are normally in September and October. Several policy curbs have been eased and the financing environment is looking brighter. In November, new and pre-owned home prices in China's major cities continued to grow at a slower pace, and the latest top-level meeting's stance to promote the healthy development of the property sector is expected to further stabilize market expectations. 

2021年的楼市上下半场分化明显,上半年市场热情高涨,但随着各地加大调控力度,叠加全面去杠杆的“三条红线”“供地两集中”“房贷集中度管理”等全面落地实施,更重要的是信贷收紧以后,房企资金获取受限,市场急速向下,销售、土地、投资纷纷遇冷。

近日,多家机构数据显示,2021年,包括二手房成交规模、新房成交增速、土地市场成交、房地产开发投资增速等在内的各项数据均创新低,对于房企而言,百强房企销售规模大概率将持平甚至略有回落,步入无增长时代。

2021年的市场起伏有其特殊性,本质上在于资金端的全方位收紧,降杠杆速度过快,各方预期走低产生叠加和共振效应,导致市场出现了一波“负循环”。四季度末,政策定调良性循环,监管层频频纠偏释放暖意,一线城市二手房终于在12月出现筑底现象。

但真正的市场底是否已经到来,2022年的楼市又将走出什么样的曲线,房企运营如何转向,尚需观察。

7. Regulatory storm targeted big techs

反垄断监管重拳出击,科技巨头纷纷“拆墙”

For Chinese tech giants, 2021 will be remembered as a harrowing year of regulation, where government penalties and a range of tough rules hampered the sector’s performance and resulted in some big losses of market value.

Regulators had a range of concerns, from specific targets like “fan culture” and online insurance sales to broader issues like clamping down on anti-competitive behaviour and the disorderly expansion of capital, which is in line with the country’s strategic goal of achieving “common prosperity” — a phrase that has been frequently mentioned by the top leadership since last year. 

In April, Alibaba was fined a record 2.8 billion yuan, while dozen were called in by anti-trust authorities. Regulators are trying to rectify anti monopoly practices, Didi, Tencent, Baidu and many others are fined for exclusive contracts and other irregularities.

In November, China inaugurated the National Anti-monopoly Bureau, marking a new chapter of the country's intensifying efforts to rein in companies' monopolistic practices to maintain free competition of the market.

进入2021年,在多种意义上,成为互联网市场监管的转折点。互联互通的基本政策逐渐明朗,“大厂”纷纷拆除“围墙花园”。

4月10日,市场监管总局依法对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司,在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场实施“二选一”垄断行为作出行政处罚,对其处以182.28亿元的高额罚款。

但靴子远未落地,锤子仍在举起。4月26日,市场监管总局宣布将依法对美团实施“二选一”等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。随后,在舆论视野里掀起轩然大波的滴滴事件,让互联网的政策管控,转向了反垄断与安全审查并重的组合拳模式。

7月16日,国家网信办会同公安部、国家安全部、自然资源部、交通运输部、税务总局、市场监管总局等部门联合进驻滴滴出行科技有限公司,开展网络安全审查。

在反垄断与数据安全合规的监管强介入之外,还有早就在进行的下架侵犯用户隐私的APP、开屏弹窗信息骚扰整治等措施,不断落地。这让人们看到了,国家整顿长久以来野蛮生长的互联网产业的,决心和魄力。

11月18日,国家反垄断局正式挂牌成立,国家市场监管总局副局长甘霖成为国家反垄断局首任局长。此举意味着中国反垄断执法体系的强化和完善,反垄断执法资源进一步集中。

8.  The “double reduction” and third-child policy

“双减”与“三孩”政策

In September 2021, Chinese authorities banned for-profit private tutoring institutions teaching school curriculum, in an effort to ease pressure on children and parents. Offline tutoring are not allow to give online tutoring courses. Also, Beijing stipulated that all minor should only play video games for three hours a week in designated time. 

The central government revised the country's population policy by allowing couples to give birth to three children, and at the same time, pledging to invest more resources to improve parenting and reduce the cost of education. The new policy, meted out just prior to June 1, the International Children's Day, is is taken after a massive census conducted in late 2020, which showed that 12 million babies were born last year, marking a steep drop from the 18 million born in 2016. 

Local governments have also been exploring measures to encourage childbirth, including extending maternity leave, giving parental leaves, cutting taxes for parents, and setting up public childcare services.

今年的7月底,由国家中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》,简称“双减”。“双减”政策落地已有5个月,各地纷纷出台减负实施细则,大幅压减学科类培训机构、提高课内服务质量、推进考试改革、加大校外培训机构监管整治力度,成效显著。

12月21日,教育部以“双减”为主题召开发布会,指出目前线下校外培训机构已压减超过80%。此外,今年八月,国家新闻出版署发布“史上最严防沉迷”政策,明确要求了自2021年9月1日起,所有网络游戏企业仅能在周五、周六、周日和法定节假日的晚8时至晚9时向未成年人提供1小时的服务。

另一方面,人口出生数量连续四年下降,中国的三孩政策终于落地。5月31日,中共中央政治局宣布进一步优化生育政策,实施一对夫妻可以生育三个子女政策及配套支持措施。这意味着,在“全面两孩”施行五年后,中国人口生育政策再次进行重大调整。而生育政策调整的背后,是我国人口出生数量持续下降的现状。

今年5月份“七普”公布的数据里,2020年全年出生人口为1200万人,相比于2019年,下降了18%。 有些城市出生人口的降幅甚至达到了10%至30%,虽然二胎政策开放,出生率也难以大幅上涨。近日发布的《中国统计年鉴2021》首次透露了人口出生数据。根据年鉴,2020年全国人口出生率为8.52‰,首次跌破10‰,创下了数十年来的新低。

9. Global Development Initiative and 20 years in WTO

“20,50”:入世20年与中国恢复联合国席位50周年

In 2021, 50 years after the People's Republic of China restored its lawful seat at the UN, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Development Initiative in his speech to the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September, saying the country remains committed to promoting multilateralism and building a community with a shared future for mankind – in a time of crisis and great uncertainties.

2021 also marks China's 20 years in the World Trade Organization. As a WTO member, China fulfilled all its WTO accession commitments by 2010, and has also exceeded these goals by a mile. Over the past 20 years, China's average annual contribution to global economic growth has been nearly 30 percent. The total level of tariffs has fallen sharply from 15.3 percent to less than 7.5 percent, well below the 9.8 percent promised on WTO accession. China will continue to uphold the multilateral trading system, even as protectionism and unilateralism rise across the globe.

50年前,第二十六届联合国大会以压倒性多数通过第2758号决议,决定恢复中华人民共和国在联合国的一切权利,承认中华人民共和国政府代表是中国在联合国的唯一合法代表。9月21日,习近平主席以视频方式出席第七十六届联合国大会一般性辩论,并发表题为《坚定信心 共克时艰 共建更加美好的世界》的重要讲话。习近平主席在讲话中强调必须复苏经济、推动全球发展,并明确提出构建全球发展命运共同体。

今年也是中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)20周年。2001年随着会议主席卡迈勒手中“入世槌”落下,世贸组织第四届部长级会议通过中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的决定。12月11日,中国正式加入WTO,成为其第143个成员。20年来,中国全面履行入世承诺,不断扩大开放,以自身稳健发展成为世界经济增长的“动力源”和“稳定器”。过去20年,中国对世界经济增长的平均贡献率超过30%,关税总水平从入世前的15.3%大幅下降到7.5以下,低于9.8%的入世承诺,国内市场的竞争水平大大提高。20年来,中国为维护多边贸易体制、促进世界经济贸易发展作出了重要贡献。中国恪守国际贸易规则,积极维护以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制,发挥了中流砥柱的作用。面对保护主义冲击,中国为巩固世贸组织在全球贸易体系中的基础性地位发挥了建设性作用。

10. Exploring the universe

“祝融号”登录火星,神舟十三将在太空迎新年

During 2021 China successfully launched an orbiter and rover to Mars, the first nation to sent both in one try. Zhurong made it on the surface of Mars on May 15, making China the world’s second country to send a rover on the Red Planet besides the US. 

China’s Shenzhou 13 Spacecraft docked with its space station core module Tianhe in October, and the crew are staying in space for six month, China’s longest manned mission ever. It also includes the country’s second “Taikonaut” Wang Yaping, who became the first Chinese female to walk in space. 

对于中国航天事业来说,2021年5月15日绝对是一个值得载入史册的重要一天,中国自主研发的火星探测器“天问一号”成功着陆,“祝融”号火星车降临火星。截至目前,人类一共进行过21次火星探测器着陆任务,仅有9次取得成功,其中就有“天问一号”的这一次。

2021年10月16日0时23分左右,我国长征二号F运载火箭搭载神舟十三号载人飞船顺利升空,并取得圆满成功。本次搭乘神舟飞船的航天员分别是:翟志刚、王亚平和叶光富。12月27日,神舟十三号航天员乘组圆满完成第二次出舱全部既定任务,出舱活动取得圆满成功。三位航天员在轨工作生活已超过70天,并已于11月7日完成了第一次出舱活动。

And that brings us to the end of today’s program as we looked back on China’s financial headlines in 2021. Wish you a better, stronger, and healthier 2022. Thanks for joining us and Happy New Year.

(欢迎大家提供意见和反馈,请联系主播李莹亮:liyl@21jingji.com)

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI, ZHANG Ran

Producer: XIANG Xiufang

Sound Editor: ZHANG Ran, Andy YUAN

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Wanni

Co-produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News & SFC Audio/Video Dept.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑:李艳霞 

播音:李莹亮

撰稿:李莹亮、张然

监制:向秀芳 

音频制作:张然、袁思杰 

设计:郑文静、廖苑妮

21世纪经济报道海外部 南财音视频部  联合制作

南方财经全媒体集团  出品 

(作者:李莹亮,见习记者张然 编辑:于晓娜)