CBN Friday Special丨2022 Outlook: What to expect in this year's Chinese economy

S: Hi everyone. Welcome to CBN Friday Special, I’m Stephanie LI.

R: And I’m ZHANG Ran. In the first special episode of this year, we’ll be looking at China’s 2022 outlook.

S: The keyword for this year’s economy is, without any doubt, “stability.” China set out its overarching economic policies for 2022 in the annual Central Economic Work Conference in December, which stressed the importance of “stability” above all else, and that it would implement “a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.”

R: A “proactive fiscal policy” means providing more targeted and sustainable fiscal incentives and support, in particular for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. A “prudent monetary policy”, meanwhile, will be to maintain a “reasonable” level of liquidity but without “flooding” the market.

S: This tone-setting meeting also pointed out that China’s economy is facing “triple pressure” from demand contraction, supply shocks and weakening expectations, and the external environment is becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain. That’s why China has set “stability” as the key for this year’s economy. 

R: China’s economy expanded at a moderate pace in the final month of the year, supported by better business sentiment, easing factory inflation pressures and faster car sales. However, the slumping property sector and slowing external demand are clouding the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

S: That’s right. There are mixed signals from some of the real-time economic data. Foreign trade strength continued in December, but the pace may slow due to shipping bottlenecks and the outlook for 2022 is less clear as it will be harder to sustain the record-breaking expansion of last year.

R: As factory-gate inflation showed some signs of easing last month, domestic demand is expected to improve. But home sales continued to fall, even as authorities try to prevent a hard hand on the sector. And the related construction demand has been weak and the government’s desire to curb pollution during the upcoming Winter Olympics will cloud this year’s production.

S: And the sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19 continue to take their toll. Although each successive outbreak has been contained, the recent outbreaks in Xi’an and Henan province have shown that the pandemic will continue to influence our lives in 2022.

R: Mainland China reported 116 domestic cases on Thursday, with 56 in Henan province, and 57 in Xi’an city of Shannxi. Xi’an has been under lockdown for more than two weeks, and Henan has stepped up efforts to epidemic control on Wednesday. 

The zero COVID policy means that more lockdowns are highly likely. The uncertain nature combined with the relative regularity of the outbreaks will likely continue to impact consumer confidence, affect productivity, and inflate prices of key commodities.

S: COVID-19 is likely not the only cause of the economic slowdown, since domestic policy decisions have also had a part to play. Environmental policies targeting coal output and consumption that led to a power crunch in parts of China will continue to impact both housing and factories.

R: All of the above have contributed to a not-so-strong performance in the Chinese stock market. The A-share market wasn’t able to secure a “red opening”, as the major indexes have been in the “green” for four straight days since the beginning of this year.

S: Still, China’s economic outlook for the year is predicted to be relatively bright with GDP growth forecast at over 5 percent, which is higher than the global average.

However, the economic growth in 2022 is expected to slow from the 2021 rate. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank predicted a 5.6 percent and 5.4 percent year-over-year growth, respectively, which align with the 5.3 percent prediction made by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

R: But when compared to the economic outlook of the rest of the world, China is still in a relatively strong position. Its success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic and stimulating productivity has allowed a relatively normal pace of work and life in the country.

S: In 2021, a wide range of industries was hit by unexpected regulations, from the education sector to internet platforms to the gaming industry. Going into 2022, it is likely we will see more regulations be released to further strengthen China’s growing regulatory regime for digital industries.

R: For the tech sector, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has just fined tech giants including Tencent, Alibaba and Bilibili for violating the anti-monopoly law on Wednesday, which is a fresh sign of China’s continued efforts to crack down on monopolistic behaviors. China also established a new anti-monopoly bureau, meaning that the department will have more investigative powers going forward and more resources to implement regulations and punish market players for failing to comply.

S: Moreover, laws and regulations will be in place to beef up the protection of domestic data. China passed the Personal Information Protection Law last year, and the cybersecurity regulation which requires companies with more than a million users to undergo data security review before seeking foreign listings will be effective from February 15.

R: Despite the challenges presenting China’s economy, there are also reasons to remain positive about business in 2022. For one thing, The relatively stable economic situation that has benefited consumption and productivity among domestic companies is also a boon for foreign companies.  

S: And the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has come into effect on January 1st. The world’s biggest trading bloc covers a market of 2.2 billion people with a combined economic size of $26.2 trillion, or 30 percent of the world's GDP. It is expected to give a strong boost to economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, promote post-epidemic recovery, and become a new engine for regional and global economic growth.

新年好！

在2022年第一期《中国经济速览》周五特别版节目中，我们就来看一下今年中国经济有哪些重点、看点和风险点。

2022年保持经济平稳运行面临的风险和挑战较多，但我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变。

中国社科院在2021年12月发布的经济蓝皮书中指出，预计2022年中国经济增长5.3%左右，2020至2022年三年平均增长5.2%，略高于2020至2021年两年平均增速5.1%。国际货币基金组织、世界银行对2022年中国GDP增速的预测值分别为5.6%、5.4%，分别高出全球增速预测值0.7个、1个百分点。

但中国经济仍面临下行压力。中央经济工作会议12月8日至10日在北京举行。会议指出，在充分肯定成绩的同时，必须看到我国经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。世纪疫情冲击下，百年变局加速演进，外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定。

会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前。

2022年，在全球疫情量级持续加重的背景下，防控常态化的特征不会改变。1月6日，内地新增本土病例116例（陕西57例，均在西安市；河南56例，其中许昌市28例、郑州市26例、洛阳市1例、固始县1例；浙江3例，其中宁波市2例、金华市1例）。西安此轮疫情已导致封城超过半月，河南多地也从周三起收紧疫情防控政策。2022年，消费、投资、出口三大终端需求的变化，仍然是全球关注的焦点。

此外，进入新的一年，互联网平台依然是监管重点。1月5日，市场监管总局发布13起违法实施经营者集中行政处罚案例，其中涉及腾讯、阿里、京东、B站等互联网大厂。从反垄断法修正草案的提出，再到国家反垄断局挂牌成立，中国反垄断制度正朝着更加健全的发展方向迈进。

中国也将不断加强数据安全法律法规建设。继《个人信息保护法》于2021年11月1日起施行，今年1月4日，国家网信办等十三部门近日联合修订发布《网络安全审查办法》（以下称“办法”）。办法明确，掌握超过100万用户个人信息的网络平台运营者赴国外上市必须向网络安全审查办公室申报网络安全审查，自2022年2月15日起施行。

多重压力下，新年伊始A股不仅未如愿迎来”开门红“，日线出现五连阴。周五A股收跌，日线迎来五连阴，沪指收跌0.18%，深成指跌0.66%。光锂电等新能源赛道继续下挫。港股恒生指数涨1.82%，基建类股延续涨势，科技股继续反弹。

虽然面临诸多压力，中央经济工作会议提出，中国经济韧性强，长期向好的基本面不会改变。在华外企经营良好，对中国市场预期乐观，信心较足。

今年1月1日，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效，将在关税、服务贸易及投资领域发挥作用，推动疫后经济恢复和增长，成为地区和全球经济增长的一个新引擎。作为全球规模最大的自由贸易协定，其总人口、经济体量、贸易总额均占全球总量的1/3。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI, ZHANG Ran

Writer: Stephanie LI, ZHANG Ran

Producer: XIANG Xiufang

Sound Editor: ZHANG Ran, Andy YUAN

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Wanni

Co-produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News & SFC Audio/Video Dept.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑：李艳霞 

播音：李莹亮、张然

撰稿：李莹亮、张然

监制：向秀芳 

音频制作：张然、袁思杰 

设计：郑文静、廖苑妮

21世纪经济报道海外部 南财音视频部  联合制作

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