CBN丨China's yuan hits 4-year high amid strong trade surpluses

China Business Now张然,李莹亮 2022-01-26 06:54

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Hi everyone. I’m Zhang Ran.

大家好,我是主持人张然。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

  • Strong export and weak US dollar pushed China’s yuan to a record high;

  • Top securities regulator bans banks to use service prices to engage in unfair competition.

Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours 

中国经济要闻

China's yuan jumped to a four-year high, guided by the country’s rising fiscal surplus last year and the heavy corporate demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

The onshore yuan closed at 6.33 per dollar on Monday, a record high since April 2018. Prior to market opening, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint 81 pips stronger than the previous fix at 6.3411 yuan per dollar, the firmest since May 2018.

This came amid China's strong trade surplus during the pandemic and inflows into yuan-denominated bonds. The trade surplus hit a record high of US$676 billion last year, driven by strong overseas demand for Chinese-made goods. 

The surpluses are expected to remain robust in 2022, although inflows into onshore bonds may start to slow as the yield spread between China and the US narrows as the Federal Reserve starts hiking interest rates, analysts said, expecting more flexibility of yuan in 2022.

Analysts added that corporate yuan demand is typically heavier just before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which starts on Jan. 31 this year, as companies make payments such as employee bonuses. The weakened dollar index, which closed at 95.9 on Monday, also contributes to the stronger midpoint fixing, according to analysts.

1月24日,在岸及离岸人民币对美元汇率双双走高。在岸人民币创2018年4月以来新高。

周一,人民币对美元中间价调升81个基点,报6.3411,创2018年5月份以来新高。截至1月24日16时30分收盘,在岸人民币收盘报6.332,盘中最高触及6.329,创2018年4月27日以来新高;截至17时,离岸人民币汇率盘中最高触及6.3322,创2021年12月9日以来新高。

分析人士认为,两大因素导致近期人民币的强势。一是外贸的高景气导致经常性账户顺差持续扩大,而积压的结汇需求以及外资的持续流入为人民币形成支撑。随着出口订单回到中国,2021年,中国贸易顺差达到6760亿美元。而作为节前最后一周,结汇需求有望进一步兑现,年关之际的刚性结汇需求也推升人民币不断走高。

二是美元指数较为乏力,短期内,随着期货市场做多美元指数的情绪有所缓和,以及欧美在经济基本面和货币政策方面的差距收窄,美元指数暂时缺乏上行动能。1月24日,美元指数在汇市尾市收于95.91。

展望后期人民币汇率走势,分析人士认为,在今年上半年出口保持韧性以及央行加强汇率预期管理的情况下,人民币或将保持平稳趋势。若下半年出口放缓,人民币或将受到更多来自美联储实际收紧、中美利差收窄和美元指数偏强的影响。整体来看,今年人民币双向波动特征将较为明显,弹性也有所强化。

Update on COVID-19

疫情简报

  • The Chinese mainland reported 18 local infections on Monday, among which 6 were in Xinjiang and 5 in Beijing. Tianjin and Shanghai each added one case.

    1月24日,内地新增本土病例18例(新疆6例,均在伊犁哈萨克自治州;北京5例,其中丰台区4例、朝阳区1例;河南3例,均在安阳市;河北2例,均在雄安新区;天津1例,在津南区;上海1例,在奉贤区)。

Next on industry and company news

产经消息及公司新闻

  • China will accelerate the building of a "modern circulation system," covering business circulation, logistics, transport and financial support during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, according to NDRC on Monday. The top market regulator also vowed to crack down on monopoly and unfair competition in the circulation field.   

    首份现代流通体系规划出炉:24日,国家发展改革委对外发布《“十四五”现代流通体系建设规划》,围绕市场、商贸、物流、交通等领域提出了50项任务举措,包括鼓励现代流通企业发展,引导大中小企业基于现代流通体系深度对接,构建流通新生态,以及加大反垄断、反不正当竞争监管执法力度,规范平台企业经营行为。

  • Tencent Holdings, China's biggest social media and video games company, on Tuesday said it fired nearly 70 staff over bribery and embezzlement incidents last year and named 13 companies it had blacklisted from future contracts. 

    腾讯“反腐”辞退70人:据腾讯集团反舞弊调查部微信公众号25日消息,2021年全年,腾讯反舞弊调查部共发现并查处触犯“腾讯高压线”案件50余起,近70人因触犯“腾讯高压线”被辞退,10余人因涉嫌犯罪被移送公安机关处理,13家公司被拉入永不合作主体清单。

  • Chinese computer vision pioneer SenseTime Group has purchased a 1.3 percent stake in state-backed industrial park developer Lingang to become its ninth-biggest shareholder, the corporate property developer said. Lingang will team up with SenseTime to advance its digital transformation. 

    商汤入股上海临港:上海临港经济发展(集团)有限公司发布公告称,公司控股股东临港资管的一致行动人浦江公司,向宁波阡誓企业管理合伙企业(有限合伙)转让上海临港1.33%股份。宁波阡誓背后正是AI巨头商汤科技的全资平台,通过本次转让,商汤科技将成为上海临港前十大股东。

  • Gree Electric announced Monday its shareholders return plan for the next three years. The total amount of cash dividends will not be lower than half of its net profits each year if the cash flow allows.

    格力电器”土豪式“分红:24日,格力电器公告称,2022年至2024年将每年进行两次利润分配,在现金流满足正常经营和长期发展的前提下,每年累计现金分红总额将不低于当年净利润的50%。

  • Tencent-backed Tuhu Car is seeking the green light for an IPO in Hong Kong to raise up to $400 million for the expansion of its automotive-servicing business in China. It serves most of the passenger vehicle models sold in China, fulfilling the automotive service demands.  

    途虎养车拟赴港上市:24日消息,一站式汽车服务平台途虎养车向港交所递交招股书,拟寻求主板上市,高盛、中金公司、美银证券、瑞银集团为联席保荐人,拟融资3亿至4亿美元。

  • Hong Kong’s flagship airlines Cathay Pacific recorded a narrower-than-expected loss of up to HK$6.1 billion last year. Cathay's cargo flights, one of the few sectors where the airline was making cash, had managed to maintain the same capacity as in 2020, while passenger flights dropped 84.5 percent.  

    国泰航空预计亏损收窄:24日,香港国泰航空公布2021年最新业务表现,预计全年集团录得综合股东应占亏损约56亿至61亿港元,比2020年度亏损216亿元大幅减少。2021年全年载客人次较2020年减少84.5%,货运量则与前年持平。

  • Chinese developer Shimao Group is moving to offload 34 projects, joining a growing parade of developers seeking to ease liquidity crises by selling assets. The assets up for sale include residential, office, commercial and hotel projects wholly or partly owned by Shimao. The projects are in 17 cities including Beijing and Shanghai.

    世茂加快出售项目资产:近期,世茂集团在加快处置资产,将能交易的项目做成推介资料进行推广,以推进销售,合计报价超过771亿元,剔除通过抵押等已经用掉的融资额度,最多可回款236亿元。出售项目中,不乏上海核心位置的商办、广州已经处于利润分配阶段的住宅项目、深圳地标项目世茂龙岗国际中心等核心资源。

  • JD Technology is preparing an IPO that could raise between $1 billion and $2 billion in Hong Kong this year, which comes after the company withdrew from a planned Shanghai STAR Market IPO. 

    传京东科技赴港IPO:24日晚间,有消息称京东旗下的京东科技集团正计划2022年赴港上市,计划融资10亿-20亿美元,并称京东科技正与美国银行、中信证券和海通国际合作进行上市。2021年4月,京东数科曾撤回科创板上市申请。

Switching gears to the financial sector

金融市场要闻

  • Banks shall not use price as a means to carry out unfair competition, and no fee should be levied without providing substantive services when it comes to financing businesses, according to China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Monday. When setting price ranges, banks shall not excessively expand the upper and lower limit intervals and avoid price management requirements.  

    银行不得开展不正当竞争:银保监会发布《关于规范银行服务市场调节价管理的指导意见》,提出银行不得利用价格手段开展不正当竞争;对于融资类业务,不得未提供实质性服务而收取费用;在设置价格区间时,不得过度扩大上下限间隔、规避价格管理要求等。

Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market

最后来看股市收盘情况

  • Chinese stocks suffered big losses on Tuesday due to huge fluctuations in the global markets. The Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 2.58 percent and the Shenzhen Component Index lost 2.83 percent. The Hang Seng Index also fell 1.67 percent.

    受外围市场大幅波动影响,周二A股集体重挫,沪指收跌2.58%,深成指跌2.83%,创业板失守3000点大关。港股恒生指数跌1.67%。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

  • A trade surplus is an economic measure of a positive balance of trade, where a country's exports exceed its imports.

    贸易顺差是指在特定年度一国出口贸易总额大于进口贸易总额。

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(作者:张然,李莹亮 编辑:李艳霞)