CBN丨IMF: Global economy will grow by 4.4% in 2022 and China at 4.8%

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

大家好，我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

• IMF cut global growth prediction with China being revised down 0.8 percent;

• China issues measures to further relax market access in Shenzhen.

Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours 

中国经济要闻

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected the global economy to grow by 4.4 percent in 2022, down by 0.5 percent from October's forecast, as economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty, a newly released update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report said.

The lower-than-expected global economic growth is mainly because the growth forecasts of the US and China have been revised down, the IMF said. China's GDP in 2022 may grow 4.8 percent, higher than the world's 4.4 percent, as the report shows.

The IMF suggested that China's growth forecast was revised down due to multiple factors, including the weaker-than-expected recovery in private consumption and the ongoing retrenchment of China's real estate sector. 

China's insistence on a zero-tolerance epidemic strategy is also noted in the report as the alleged potential cause that may exacerbate global supply disruptions.However, despite the low projection for various reasons, many institutions in China predicted that the growth rate this year may still be above 5 percent, given the resilient and complete supply chain, supportive policies, and huge consumption capacity that are yet to be fully unleashed.

1月25日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新一期《世界经济展望》中预测，2022年全球经济增速为4.4%，比三个月前的预测低0.5个百分点。

IMF经济顾问兼研究部主任吉塔·戈皮纳特在发布会上说，奥密克戎毒株的迅速蔓延导致许多国家重启防疫限制措施，加剧了劳动力短缺；供给扰动仍对经济活动构成压力，并导致通胀进一步上升；创纪录的债务水平和不断攀升的通胀限制了许多国家的应对能力。

在最新预测中，全球最大的两个经济体2022年的增长预期均被下调。其中，美国预计将增长4.0%，被下修了1.2个百分点；中国预计将增长4.8%，被下修了0.8个百分点。

戈皮纳特表示，中国的经济复苏一直处于领先行列。但同时，中国私人消费的复苏步伐并未如预期，房地产行业亦面临挑战。戈皮纳特认为，疫情防控形势和房地产行业等的因素仍将继续成为IMF对中国经济前景进行基线预测时的主要变量。

中国社科院在2021年12月发布的经济蓝皮书中指出，预计2022年中国经济增长5.3%左右。

• The NDRC, the Ministry of Commerce and other four departments jointly issued on Wednesday the guidelines on promoting high-quality development of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which laid down rules on trade and investment facilitation, intellectual property rights and e-commerce.  

  高质量实施RCEP：26日商务部、发改委等6部门联合印发的《关于高质量实施RCEP的指导意见》共涵盖30条内容，围绕RCEP投资、原产地规则、贸易便利化、知识产权、电子商务等领域的开放承诺与规则，提出推动贸易投资高质量发展、提升产业竞争力、提升营商环境等重点任务，为各部门各地方高质量实施协定指明了方向。

• State Administration of Taxation said Wednesday that nearly 1.1 trillion yuan of tax and fees were cut in 2021 to further mobilise market entities in the 14th Five-Year-Plan period. More than 216 billion yuan of tax and fees were delayed in the interests of small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises and 27 billion yuan of tax were cut for electricity-generating and heating enterprises. 

  去年新增降税费超万亿：26日，国家税务总局副局长王道树介绍，2021年全年新增减税降费约1.1万亿元，为制造业中小微企业办理缓缴税费2162亿元，为煤电和供热企业办理“减、退、缓”税271亿元。国务院第八次大督查结果显示减税降费落实到位、成效明显。

• China’s fiscal revenues rose 10.7 percent year on year to over 20 trillion yuan in 2021, exceeding the government’s goal of an 8.1 percent increase, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday. Both the central government and local governments topped their goals for fiscal revenues, bolstered by economic recovery and increases in producer prices. 

  去年全国财政收入超20万亿：25日财政部副部长许宏才介绍2021年全年财政收支情况，2021年全国一般公共预算收入20.25万亿元，比上年增长10.7％，全年完成预算并有一定超收。许宏才表示，财政收入增长主要是经济恢复性增长，再加上工业生产者出厂价格指数涨幅较高等因素拉动，与经济运行总体态势和企业利润增长相适应。

Greater Bay Area, Greater Future

新使命，大未来

• China on Wednesday unveiled an opinion on relaxing market access in the country's southern metropolis Shenzhen, as part of efforts to further promote reform and opening-up of the Greater Bay Area. The opinion detailed special measures to ease market access in sectors including the application of advanced technologies and their industrial development, finance and investment, medicine and health, education and culture, as well as transportation. 

  深圳放宽市场准入特别措施：26日消息，国家发改委、商务部印发《关于深圳建设中国特色社会主义先行示范区放宽市场准入若干特别措施的意见》，提出放宽和优化先进技术应用和产业发展领域市场准入，优化5G、物联网等新一代信息技术应用方式；完善金融投资领域准入方式，提升农产品供应链金融支持能力等意见。

Update on COVID-19

疫情简报

• The Chinese mainland reported 24 local infections on Tuesday, as Beijing saw an increase to 14 cases.

  1月25日，内地新增本土病例24例（北京14例，其中丰台区9例、朝阳区3例、大兴区1例、西城区1例；黑龙江4例，均在牡丹江市；新疆2例，均在伊犁哈萨克自治州；河北1例，在保定市；辽宁1例，在沈阳市；河南1例，在安阳市；广东1例，在中山市）。

Next on industry and company news

产经消息及公司新闻

• Chinese real estate developer Shimao Group intends to sell 37 projects in total worth more than 77.1 billion yuan to reduce its liabilities. The firm expects to recover as much as 23.6 billion yuan in funds via the transfers. It came after Shimao sold its 26.7 percent stake in the Guangzhou stadium for 1.8 billion yuan. 

  世茂继续出售核心资产：继1月21日出售上海黄浦路地块、24日出售广州亚运城项目26.67%股权后，25日有消息称世茂集团已将旗下全国各地的37个项目装入资产包等待出售，项目合计报价达771.44亿元，除去抵押等已经用掉的融资额度，世茂预计最多可回款236亿元。

• JiDU Auto, Baidu's smart car brand, announced Wednesday that it has closed nearly $400 million in Series A funding, as the search engine and AI giant ramps up its efforts in the EV industry. The funding round, which came from Baidu and its strategic partner Geely, will help JiDU accelerate the development and mass production of its first robot car.

  集度汽车获4亿美元融资：26日消息，据百度官方消息，百度旗下智能汽车品牌集度宣布已完成近4亿美元的A轮融资，本轮融资由百度和战略合作伙伴吉利共同增持。首款汽车机器人概念车将于今年4月亮相，2023年量产车型上市。

• Chinese domestic auto maker BYD intensified a crackdown on corruption in 2021, with 28 suppliers and 94 employees being flagged for violating company regulations while another 22 people involved in seven cases were referred to the police for investigation.

  比亚迪“反腐”94人被查处：24日，比亚迪披露，2021年因违反廉洁合作相关协议，28家供应商被该公司追责；同时，公司查处严重违规员工94人；移交公安机关立案侦查7起22人，依法追究刑事责任。

Switching gears to the financial sector

金融市场要闻

• China’s foreign direct investment jumped 14.9 percent and surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, according to the commerce ministry. China will expand the Catalogue of Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment while continuing to shorten the foreign investment negative list, said the ministry. 

  中国FDI首破万亿元：25日，商务部综合司司长郭婷婷表示，2021年，我国吸收外资快速增长，全年实际使用外资首次突破万亿，达1.1万亿元，增长14.9%，新设外资企业4.8万家，增长23.5%，实现引资规模和质量“双提升”。商务部外国投资管理司司长陈春江称中国将继续扩大开放、完善支持政策，同时缩减外商投资负面清单。

• Yields on benchmark Chinese government bonds recovered Tuesday after slumping to their lowest in almost two years the previous day when the central bank cut the interest rate on a key money-market instrument. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds declined that day to close at 2.6775 percent, and recovered to 2.6975 percent Tuesday.

  10年期国债收益率跌破2.7%：由于货币政策环境宽松，1月24日，十年期国债活跃券收益率继续下行跌破2.7%重要关口，下跌幅度一度超3.5个基点，达到2.6725%附近。25日10年期国债收益率小幅回升至2.6975。

• The value of urban construction investment bonds issued in China since 2022 is 25.7 percent down on a year earlier amid a regulatory clampdown on local government financing vehicles. So far 345.5 billion yuan of bonds were sold this year, still higher than those of the same periods of 2020 and 2019. 

  今年初城投债发行下滑：截至1月24日，今年城投债发行规模达3455.11亿元，较去年同期的4650.61亿元有明显下降，不过均高于2020年和2019年的发行水平。

Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market

最后来看股市收盘情况

• Chinese stocks ended higher on Wednesday with wind energy stocks rising across the board. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.66 percent and the Shenzhen Component was up 0.7 percent. The Hang Seng Index also edged up 0.19 percent.  

  周三A股回升，沪指收涨0.66%，深成指涨0.78%。风电板块全天强势，多股涨停。港股恒生指数微升0.19%，科技股多股上涨。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

• The World Economic Outlook is a survey usually published twice a year by the International Monetary Fund staff. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term.

  《世界经济展望》介绍国际货币基金组织工作人员对全球经济发展的分析和预测，重点是经济政策问题，以及对经济发展前景的分析，通常每年出版两期。

（欢迎大家提供意见和反馈，请联系主播李莹亮：liyl@21jingji.com）

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