CBN Friday Special丨Chinese stock markets in review: Bumpy 2022 and Year of Hope in 2023

China Business Now李莹亮 2023-01-20 20:14

感受中国泛经济脉搏,畅谈最新最有趣的商业话题。

Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.

China’s economy has had a bumpy ride throughout 2022. Almost three years into the Covid-19 pandemic, headwinds including the worst outbreaks and a prolonged property sector crisis continued to put a brake on growth.

China’s GDP has expanded 3% in 2022, well below the target set earlier in the year. Meanwhile, local governments’ fiscal woes have intensified as their land sales and tax revenues have slumped. 

China’s yuan has also weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar over the year, amid aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Despite the depreciation, the Chinese currency is gaining more international traction in cross-border transactions with Russia, Southeast Asian nations and oil exporters including Saudi Arabia.  

More critically, with the optimizations of its Covid policy at the year-end, the country’s pivot to focus on economic growth is raising the prospect of a strong recovery in 2023.

China's stock market wrapped up one of the bumpiest years last year, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index finishing with a loss of 15% from 2021. 

The stock market is a barometer of the economy. Below are the highlights of China’s stock market performance and challenges in 2022, and what to look out for next year as it heads to the post-Covid era.

Chinese stocks experienced more ups and downs  

By the end of last year, Shanghai’s index was down roughly 15% from the start of 2022 while Shenzhen is 25% lower. The CSI 300 Index, a gauge of China’s largest locally traded stocks, is down about 21% this year. 

Like the technology-studded NASDAQ which tumbled 33% in 2022, China's ChiNext index racked up considerable loss too, dropping 29.37% last year. The index fared much worse than the Shanghai composite stock index because it is heavily made up of technology companies which led the broader market slump all across the world.  

In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index capped a 15% loss in 2022, a third straight year of setback with many houses betting on a better outcome in 2023. The Hang Seng Tech Index performed even worse with over 27% loss throughout the year.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong, just suffered a third straight year of declines, a record losing streak since its inception in 1994. The slump in 2022 was accompanied by spiking volatility that was the worst since the global financial crisis and ranked the highest among major benchmarks in the world. Combined losses from stocks traded on the mainland and in Hong Kong reached $3.9 trillion. 

However, investors are starting to rebuild confidence thanks to the government's move to optimize the anti-COVID responses. Chinese shares staged an epic rebound in November, when Beijing started relaxing Covid restrictions and increased efforts to defuse debt risks among property developers. 

Since November, Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong have rebounded more than 35%. Indexes for Chinese companies with American depository receipts, meanwhile, have jumped more than 50% over the six weeks after the Covid policy shift. Benchmark indexes for A shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen have seen more modest gains of 12.3% and 18.7%, respectively, from April lows.

“Smart money” speeds up influx after shrinking 80% in 2022

"Northbound capital" that overseas investors pump into A shares through the Stock Connect, is estimated to fall by almost 80%, or a decrease of 330 billion yuan, to reach 87 billion yuan by the end of last year. 

However, foreign funds are snapping up Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in at least five years in anticipation of a boost in the market from the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

They bought over 100 billion yuan of A-shares through the Stock Connect in the first three weeks of 2023, the largest new year net buying in history. 

JPMorgan estimated that the A-share market's average earnings per share will surge 14% this year, which will be on par with the level seen in August 2022.

As global investors turned optimistic about China’s economic rebound this year, Goldman Sachs said it is likely to report a net inflow of $30 billion this year, but still behind the $63 billion seen in 2021.

There is a growing consensus of foreign institutional investors on taking a bullish stance on Chinese stocks. In a Dec 8 report, Morgan Stanley experts said the Chinese stock market will likely stand out among those of the emerging economies and even overtake those of the rest of the world this year.

The positive forecast emerged less than a week after the New York-headquartered investment bank upgraded its China stocks outlook from equal-weight to overweight. The A-share market is at the beginning of a profit and valuation recovery that may last for many quarters to come, said Morgan Stanley analysts.

UBS Global Wealth Management has also lifted China to "most preferred" in its Asian strategy.

The MSCI China Index is expected to increase to 80 by the end of 2023 up from 70 last year, according to both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. 

IPO market shows strong resilient

While initial public offering activity was lackluster globally in 2022 due to geopolitical tensions and multiple market uncertainties hindering economic growth, the IPO market remained buoyant in the A-share market last year as the country's technology-focused boards have started to show more vitality.

Stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Korea took up the first three positions in the global IPO ranking in 2022 based on funds raised by 31 December 2022, according to professional services provider EY. Hong Kong Stock Exchange is set for 4th place, as listing market seeing renewed momentum in the second half of the year.

Although the number of IPO cases in the Chinese mainland contracted 15% year-on-year to 416 in 2022, total financing increased 9% to 584.9 billion yuan, refreshing the record reached in 2021. HKEX welcomed 76 new listings raising HK$107.6 billion last year, down 21% and 68% year on year, respectively.

It should be noted that IPO proceeds made at the STAR Market on the Shanghai Stock Exchange — the board aiming to nurture "hard technology" companies, accounted for 40% of the whole-year IPO fundraising in the A-share market in 2022, according to EY's calculation. It is the first time for the STAR Market to overtake the A-share main board where large-caps are listed in terms of IPO financing.

On top of that, among the 10 largest IPOs recorded on the A-share market last year, measured by proceeds, seven are listed on the STAR Market.

Meanwhile, the number of IPO cases recorded on Shenzhen bourse's ChiNext — the board to boost integration between traditional industries and new technologies and novel business models — came in at 150 by the end of 2022, according to latest data from market tracker Wind Info, overtaking all the other boards in the A-share market.

The STAR Market in Shanghai is expected to see 120 to 140 new listings in 2023, with total fundraising estimated between 305 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan. The ChiNext is likely to accommodate 150 to 170 IPOs in 2023, with proceeds estimated to top 210 billion yuan, according to Deloitte.

Advanced manufacturing, which is expected to highlight China's economic growth in 2023, will see more IPOs successfully announced this year. Companies that use special and sophisticated technologies to produce novel and unique products, which are also in line with the country's strategic development path, will also drive IPO activity on the one-year-old Beijing Stock Exchange.

While the BSE saw 75 new companies achieve successful flotation in 2022, with the total financing coming in at 14.9 billion yuan, Deloitte estimates that up to 120 companies will announce their IPOs on the BSE in 2023, with the total proceeds reaching 24 billion yuan.

2023: “Year of Hopes”

As the calendar turns to the new year, Chinese people have bid good riddance to the past three years by amassing on cities' landmark squares greeting the first sun rays of 2023. The government's move to optimize the anti-COVID responses is bringing a brand-new horizon for the capital market, where investors are upbeat about a sizzling rebound on the path. 

China's capital markets will keep on feeling the impact of the world's other major markets, the Wall Street in particular. The US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes remain a major concern for investors.

While the Fed's key lending rate stands at a range of 4.25-4.5% now, the US central bank has forecasted that rate could reach a range of 5-5.25% at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, China's central bank is expected to maintain its relatively loose monetary policy, possibly to continue reducing the benchmark LPR (loan prime rate) to spur domestic consumption and ease housing mortgages. 

Investors are increasingly buoyed by the emerging positive news as the latest Central Economic Work Conference sets the tone for all-out country-wide efforts to strive for a buoyant growth. In 2023, China's services sector, which makes up more than 60% of the GDP, is expected to stage a strong comeback. In addition, Chinese officials have again listed residential housing construction as one of the economy's "backbone industries," meaning more pro-real estate sector policies will be meted out.

The majority of the global investment banks predict China's growth rate at a range of 5%-6% for 2023, which is likely to support the Shanghai composite stock index to rally by 15%-30% from 2022, analysts predict. The second half of 2023 is expected to witness a cascade of growth tides, to be mirrored by waves of higher stock indexes. 

In 2023, with policies to boost domestic demands seeing better effect, buffered by the easing of Covid restrictions, stocks in consumption are widely expected to stage a strong rebound. 

Also, investors are betting on new energy stocks to gain more ground as China continues to commit to its carbon peak and neutrality goals during the push for a sustainable, green industrial upgrade. 

As China is undergoing a transition from old to new economic drivers, investors should also keep a close eye on technology growth enterprises, which are best represented by those listed on the STAR Market in Shanghai. New energy and high-end manufacturing industries may present the most opportunities for profitable investments. 

Okay, that’s a wrap for today’s episode, as well as for the Year of the Tiger. Wish you a very happy, healthy and prosperous new year. May the Year of the Rabbit bring you new possibilities, new horizons and new gains. 

兔年将至。1月20日,虎年交易日来到最后一天。

回顾过去这一年,俄乌冲突、美联储持续加息、疫情反复以及房地产风险释放等多重因素一轮又一轮冲击,令市场经历了一轮漫长筑底;这一年,A股市场走势不确定性明显增强,经历了先跌后涨、再跌再涨的“W”型行情,不少行业上市公司基本面与二级市场股价遭到“双杀”。

另外,在IPO市场上,尽管在新上市公司数量上较去年有所降低,但总体融资金额则创下新高。注册制持续推进为A股不断注入优质新鲜“血液”。

随着美联储的加息进程接近尾声,国内优化防疫政策,经济有望迎来触底反弹;经济发展改革的中长期政策进一步明朗,更多产业政策有望步入新常态;上市公司盈利有望复苏,消费板块具备弹性,新兴产业向上趋势更明朗。这一切均为2023年资本市场带了新预期。

回顾2022年:A股走势一波三折

2022年全年,上证指数结束了连续三年的上涨行情,上证指数、国证2000、上证50分别下跌15.13%、17.20%、19.52%,而科创50、创业板指、深证成指数回落更多,分别下跌31.35%、29.37%、25.85%。港股方面,恒指全年累计跌15.46%,恒生科技指数全年跌27.19%。

经济承压之下,A股市场2022年盈利持续探底,前三季度盈利逐季下滑。行业层面来看,前三季度除了农林牧渔、电力设备、有色金属、煤炭、通信行业盈利取得较大增长,其余行业盈利增速均处于15%以下甚至负增长,其中社会服务、钢铁、房地产、计算机等行业盈利降幅更是超过了30%。

回顾全年,年初稳增长政策发力未及预期,“三重压力”持续显现,经济动能进一步趋弱。虽然2月前后逆周期调控政策迎密集落实,短暂提振市场情绪,但国内疫情3月初开始多点爆发,经济复苏进程再度受阻,叠加美联储开启紧缩周期、俄乌冲击等外围扰动压制,A股前4个月整体深度下挫。5月开始,稳增长政策密集落地,叠加疫情得到有效控制、复工复产加速推进,经济活动阶段性回暖,指数迎来持续两个月的中期反弹行情。

7月开始,多地房产断供事件发酵、社融结构恶化、限电限产风波再起等一系列扰动再起,中期反弹戛然而止。随后8月国内遭遇出口增速回落、海外流动性冲击加剧下人民币跌破“7”、大国博弈事件扰动,A股重回震荡下挫。

到了11月,房地产政策“三箭齐发”,防疫政策迎实质性优化,同时美联储加息最“鹰”的阶段逐步过去,年内压制市场的三大核心因素纷纷迎来缓和窗口,A股市场再度震荡走升。随后12月疫情防控“新十条”、新冠病毒感染实施“乙类乙管”、出入境管理优化等措施陆续发布,防疫优化之下正常出行及经营活动有序恢复,有效提振经济修复预期。

总的来看,2022年全年内外冲击频发,国内经济复苏反复受挫,海外流动性超预期收紧,叠加疫情贯穿全年、地产风险持续发酵、外部地缘冲突等多重利空,A股走势一波三折,震荡下挫。

北向资金年底开始加速“扫货”

2022年,全球资本市场剧烈波动,震荡调整亦伴随A股全年。据统计,北向资金全年累计净流入也仅为900亿元,较2021年同期减少约3300亿元,降幅约为80%。

但从11月整体流向来看,北向资金全月大幅回流,单月净流入额超600亿元,加速净买入成为最新主旋律。由数据可窥探出外资机构正积极布局中国资产,“聪明钱”加速流向中国。

2023年开年,外资在A股市场上开启真金白银的“买买买”节奏,截至19日外资已连续12个交易日净买入,1月累计净买入额已达1032亿元,创单月净买入额历史纪录。目前,北向资金1月净买入额已超过2014年、2015年、2016年、2022年的全年净买入总额。

由于不少投资者看好A股春节效应,准备持股过年,“聪明钱”动向备受关注。从长线维度看,自去年11月以来外资在A股领域主要重仓食品饮料、家用电器等消费类板块。 

有机构人士指出,外资近期以来“抄底”金额之大和频率之快,相当罕见。从近期外资种种动作来看,“超配中国”已成为外资机构的强烈共识。高盛将MSCI中国指数12个月目标从70点上调至80点。这是摩根士丹利自去年12月将中国股票评级从平配上调至增配,并将MSCI中国指数2023年末目标位从59点上调至70点后,再次上调该指数。

IPO市场展现强韧性

2022年充斥各种不明朗因素,对全球IPO市场来说是充满挑战的一年,而中国内地受到全球市况波动的影响较小。在相对较低的通胀环境下,加上稳定经济的政策措施,A股IPO市场显现市场韧性。

去年上交所与深交所领先各环球证券交易所,分别摘得全球IPO融资冠亚军。港交所凭借两只超大型新股位列第四。 

安永一份报告显示,2022年全年共416家公司登陆A股市场,同比下降15%;2022年度A股市场IPO募资总额为5849亿元,同比增幅达9%,再创历史新高。

去年科创板全年筹资额超过主板,占比超过40%,名列筹资额首位;创业板列IPO数量第一。专精特新企业占上市新股总数比例上升,占比为历年最高;在国家政策的支持下,这仍将是未来几年的一大趋势。

2022年,十大A股IPO共筹资1466亿人民币,占全年筹资总额的25%,同比增加5%。前十大IPO中有7家来自科创板,筹资额占前十大的39%。两家回归A股的IPO位列前两名,筹资额占前十大的57%。

2022年香港新股市场跟随环球新股市场的跌势,融资总额及数量双双大幅下滑,但自7月以后新股上市速度回暖。尽管今年下半年新股活动开始变得活跃,然而全年整体数量及融资额仍然为过去10年以来的低位,全年共有76家公司首发上市,筹资额1076亿港元。与去年相比,IPO数量和筹资额分别下降21%和68%。有9只美国中概股回港上市,当中4只以介绍形式上市。

安永预计2023年A股IPO保持常态化高位发行。此外,先进制造业或将成为2023年中国经济亮点之一,高科技投资增速有望保持在高位;随着专精特新企业成为上市新的驱动因素,北交所有望迎来一轮IPO热潮。

2023年香港将继续担当连接中国内地与全球“超级联系人”的角色,吸引中概股回流,加上修订《上市规则》引入“特专科技公司”咨询后若落实等利好因素,明年港股IPO数量及募资金额均有望提升。

展望2023:中国经济的希冀之年

对于中国经济而言,2023年不仅是承前启后的一年,也是充满希望的一年。

宏观层面,在疫情防控政策优化、经济持续复苏、企业盈利回升等因素支持下,多家外资机构加入看好中国市场的行列,并预测2023年A股资产对全球投资者的吸引力有望不断提升,中国股市可能在2023年跑过全球其他股市。

摩根大通表示,中国有望成为2023年最具韧性的市场之一。首先,中国经济将实现复苏,这有助于对冲发达国家增长放缓带来的影响;其次,“二十大”是一个重要的政策转变的时间点,疫情防控与地产调控等政策在优化调整后前景变得更加清晰,而政府对于鼓励私人部门创新的切实举措有望带来更多的惊喜;最后,中国经常性贸易顺差与温和通胀也将支撑其经济韧性。

摩根士丹利和高盛都预测MSCI中国指数将上涨约10%,花旗全球财富投资更预计该指数将上涨约20%。这意味着,中国在2023年将成为全球一个重要的、有吸引力的股票“避风港”。

进入2023年以来,A股市场出现了一个持续上涨的行情,沪指已经站到了3200点上方。多家机构表示,从投资方向来看,2023年的投资机会集中在消费、新能源和有政策引导的高科技及专精特新企业。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI 

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑:李艳霞 

播音:李莹亮

撰稿:李莹亮

音频制作:李莹亮

设计:郑文静、廖苑妮

21世纪经济报道海外部 制作

南方财经全媒体集团  出品

(作者:李莹亮 编辑:李艳霞)

春节返乡居家防疫权威解答一问便知!