CBN丨China's entrepreneurs, bankers, consumers more optimistic about economy: PBOC

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

大家好，我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

• PBOC reports show Chinese consume and invest more in Q1, while firms and banks are more optimistic;

• BOC Research Institute predicts China’s GDP to hit 7.6% in Q2.

Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours 

中国经济要闻

Chinese residents were more willing to consume and invest in the first quarter of the year, as fewer people were inclined to save money, according to a report released by the People’s Bank of China.

Of the 20,000 depositors surveyed by China’s central bank, 23.3 percent tended to consume more in the three months ended March 31, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous quarter. Nearly 19 percent of them were more inclined to invest more, an increase of 3.3 points.

Also, when asked what items they prefer to spend more in the next three months, depositors showed strong interest in traveling, as tourism expenditure jumped 10.7 percentage points to 24 percent in the second quarter.

On the other hand, those who preferred to save more accounted for 58 percent, down 3.8 points from the record-high of 61.8 percent reported in the fourth quarter of last year, the PBOC’s Depositor Survey Report showed.

About 69.7 percent of the surveyed depositors saw no significant change in income in the first quarter, while 15.9 percent saw an increase and 14.5 percent a decline.

Regarding house prices, just over 54 percent of the surveyed Chinese said they expect prices to remain unchanged in the second quarter. Meanwhile, 18.5 percent believe home prices will increase, and 14.4 percent that they will fall.

The PBOC also released the first-quarter Entrepreneur Survey Report and the Banker Survey Report, showing optimism over the country's macroeconomy.

The entrepreneurs' macroeconomy heat index came in at 33.8 percent in the first quarter, up 10.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. The business climate index rose 2.6 points to 49.2 in the first quarter from last year’s fourth but declined 4.1 points from a year earlier, the Entrepreneur Survey Report showed. 

From the profitability point of view, 42.9 percent of the entrepreneurs polled by the PBOC said their profits or losses remained unchanged, 26.4 percent that their profits increased or losses narrowed, while 30.7 percent saw a decline in profit or widening losses.

A separate survey on bankers showed that their macroeconomy heat index stood at 40.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, up 22.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, with the overall loan demand index surging 19 points to 78.4 in the first quarter, the Banker Survey Report showed.

4月3日，人民银行发布2023年第一季度企业家、银行家、城镇储户三份调查问卷。最新的问卷结果显示，今年以来，随着疫情形势的好转，经济发展动能持续向好，带动企业家、银行家和城镇储户群体对经济发展预期的回暖。

企业家调查问卷显示，今年一季度，企业家宏观经济热度指数为 33.8%，环比上升10.3个百分点，其中，64.6%的企业家认为宏观经济“正常”。在企业经营方面，经营景气指数为49.2%，环比上升2.6个百分点。

银行家群体同样认为今年一季度宏观经济环比改善明显，且对二季度宏观经济预期继续转好。银行家调查问卷显示，银行家宏观经济热度指数为 40.2%，环比上升 22.8 个百分点。其中，有62.8%的银行家认为当前宏观经济“正常”，环比增加29.6个百分点；有28.4%的银行家认为“偏冷”，环比减少37.6个百分点。对二季度，银行家宏观经济热度预期指数为50.9%，高于一季度10.7个百分点。

经济复苏动能保持向好势头，以及开年以来一系列促经济举措密集落地，带动贷款需求的明显回暖，以及银行景气度和盈利能力的转好。调查结果显示，当季贷款总体需求指数为78.4%，创自2014年一季度以来同期历史最高水平，环比上升19.0 个百分点，同比上升6.1个百分点。其中，房地产企业贷款需求指数为55.3%，环比上升11.6 个百分点，环比增幅靠前。 

去年以来备受市场关注的居民部门高储蓄意愿现象也有所缓解。城镇储户调查结果显示，今年一季度倾向于“更多储蓄”的居民占58.0%，环比减少3.8个百分点；倾向于“更多消费”的居民季度环比增加0.5个百分点，倾向于“更多投资”居民季度环比增加3.3个百分点。

不过，值得注意的是，在被问及未来三个月准备增加何种支出项目时，旅游支出占比季度环比提升幅度最大，从上季度的占比13.3%跃升10.7个百分点至24%，显示出二季度居民出游意愿高涨。

另一个有意思的变化则是居民对二季度房价的看法，反映出居民对房价预期积极向好的变化。预期房价“上涨”的受访城镇储户的占比季度环比上升4.5个百分点至18.5%，相应的，预期房价“下降”的受访者占比环比下降4.1个百分点。预期房价“基本不变”的占比微升，“看不准”的受访居民占比则微降。

此外，当季城镇储户对收入感受、就业感受都明显回暖，当季收入感受指数环比上升6.9个百分点，收入信心指数为环比上升5.5个百分点；就业感受指数上升6.8个百分点，就业预期指数上升9.4个百分点。

• China’s economy will grow by 7.6 percent this quarter, accelerating from an estimated 4.1 percent gain in the first three months of the year, according to a new forecast from the Bank of China Research Institute. 

  The impact of the pandemic on China’s economy and society will diminish further in the second quarter and consumption will continue its recent increase, the think tank said in a report published on Monday. 

  Investment in infrastructure and the manufacturing sector will also continue growing at a faster pace, while investment in real estate is expected to stabilize and the decline in exports should narrow further. The low base of comparison is also a key reason for the stronger GDP growth in the second quarter.

  There will be less pressure for the PBOC to lower interest rates because of the continuous economic rebound, and the policy rate is predicted to remain unchanged this quarter, the report said. The financing environment will remain relatively loose and M2 money supply and social financing will maintain their growth trajectory. 

• 中行研究院预测二季度中国GDP增长7.6%：4月3日，中国银行研究院在北京发布《2023年二季度经济金融展望报告》预计一季度GDP增长4.1%。展望二季度，中国经济将全面进入疫后修复期，消费有望延续较好恢复势头，基建和制造业投资将继续较快增长，房地产投资逐步企稳，出口增速有望筑底修复，降幅或继续收窄。加之2022年同期基数较低，预计二季度GDP增长7.6%左右，增速较一季度上升3.5个百分点左右，或将为全年高点。

  《报告》指出，展望二季度，全球经济在消费、就业、通胀等领域的结构性矛盾和分化特征将更加明显，将对全球经济增长形成更多拖累。美欧银行业流动性风险将持续演化，美欧货币政策紧缩步伐可能分化，美元指数将继续从高位回落，全球股市持续承压。

  《报告》还对全球及中国银行业的发展形势进行了展望。2023年以来，全球经济面临众多挑战，主要经济体持续大幅加息导致金融体系动荡，银行业经营压力加大，资产规模有所收缩，一定程度上影响盈利增长，资本补充持续受阻。相对而言，中国银行业经营环境总体向好，经济复苏动能逐渐增强，财政货币政策组合发力，金融监管聚焦抓改革、补短板、促发展、惠民生、防风险，金融行业整体稳健发展，形成良好竞合生态。

Moving on to regional highlights

区域观察

• The third China International Consumer Products Expo, set to take place in Haikou, Hainan Province from April 10-15, will feature over 3,100 renowned brands from 60+ countries and regions, officials from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Monday. The CICPE 2023 has attracted nearly 30 CEOs from the world's top 500 enterprises to attend the on-site meeting, the MOFCOM said. The exhibition area will be increased by 20 percent over the previous meeting to reach 120,000 square meters, and about 300,000 audience are expected to join the event.

  第三届消博会即将开幕：4月3日，第三届中国国际消费品博览会筹备进展情况新闻发布会上宣布，由商务部和海南省人民政府共同主办的第三届中国国际消费品博览会将于4月10日至15日在海口举行，预计各项指标将全面超过第二届。本届消博会展览总面积将达12万平方米，较上届增加20%；共有来自65个国家和地区的超过3100个消费精品品牌参展；意大利为本届消博会主宾国，参展品牌达147个，展览面积约1800平方米，均比上届增长1倍左右；30个省区市领导率交易团参展，预计采购商和专业观众超5万人，进场观众超30万人次。

Greater Bay Area, Greater future

新使命，大未来

• A ceremony was held on Monday for the opening of a new cargo air route linking the southern Chinese metropolis Shenzhen to Sao Paulo of Brazil, which is expected to stimulate the e-commerce trade between the two countries. The air route was launched by the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and Cainiao Network, the logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, with two flights weekly conducted by Atlas Air's Boeing 747 all-cargo aircraft.

  菜鸟首个航空货运中心落户深圳：4月3日，菜鸟与深圳宝安国际机场签署合作协议，双方将联手打造菜鸟国际快递全国首个航空货运中心，跨境包裹处理效率可提升30%。据了解，此次落地的菜鸟国际快递深圳航空货运中心，是菜鸟全国首个航空货运中心，也将成为深圳机场电商专区首个启用的项目，预计本月内将正式投运。菜鸟还联手阿特拉斯正式开通了中国深圳-巴西圣保罗货运包机航线，这是深圳飞往南美的首条全货机国际货运航线，也是首条至金砖国家的“跨境电商空运专线”。

Next on industry and company news

产业及公司新闻

• With a brand value of 1.04 trillion yuan, Kweichow Moutai has become the most valuable Chinese brand for the fifth consecutive year, according to Hurun Most Valuable Chinese Brand 2022 ranking released on Monday. Kweichow Moutai, the only trillion-dollar brand, is followed by another liquor brand Wuliangye and a cigarette brand ChungHwa. Although its brand value dropped 33 percent to 160 billion yuan, short-video app Douyin rose one spot to tie with WeChat for the fourth place. Meanwhile, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen remain the top three cities with the most brands on the list, with 70, 52 and 32, respectively, collectively accounting for more than half of the top 300.

  贵州茅台五度蝉联“最具价值中国品牌”：4月3日，胡润研究院发布《2022胡润品牌榜》。其中，贵州茅台以10350亿元品牌价值排名总榜单第一，连续第五次成为“最具价值中国品牌”，是唯一一个万亿级品牌。五粮液以2500亿元品牌价值排名总榜单第二，中华排名第三。抖音品牌价值虽然下跌33%至1600亿元，但排名上升一位，和微信并列第四；京东虽然下跌25%至1200亿元，但排名上升两位至第七。拼多多、天猫和淘宝跌出十强。分城市看，北京、上海和深圳仍然是上榜品牌最多的前三大城市，分别有70个、52个和32个，总计占300强一半以上。

• Huawei Technologies announced plan to pay out dividends of nearly 72 billion yuan through its employee shareholder scheme, 10.5 billion yuan more than the previous year, media reported today. Some 142,315 current and former workers are involved in the scheme, according to the company’s 2022 annual report released last week. The company is private and wholly owned by its employees, including its founder Ren Zhengfei.

  华为2022年分红719.55亿元：4月4日，媒体获悉，经华为公司内部有权机构决议，拟向股东分配股利人民币719.55亿元。相比2021年分红总额614.04亿元，同比增加105.51亿元。华为2022年年报显示，华为投资控股有限公司是100%由员工持有的民营企业。公司通过工会实行员工持股计划，员工持股计划参与人数为142315人（截至2022年12月31日），参与人均为公司在职员工或退休保留人员。

• Taobao, a major online retail platform of Alibaba Group Holding, has launched a specialized sales channel for goods priced up to 10 yuan to compete with JD.Com and Pinduoduo. Some users can already see the channel and is expected to widen access to all Taobao users by April 30, media reported yesterday.

  淘宝首页将上线99特卖频道：4月3日，媒体获悉，淘宝已面向部分用户，在其app首页上线了99特卖频道。一张新版淘宝首页截图显示，99特卖频道与淘宝直播并列，在首页最显眼位置处展示，该入口处还标有“9.9”的字眼。据悉，目前，并不是每个用户都可以看到这个频道。一名电商行业人士称，预计淘宝只针对部分用户开放了这一频道。正常情况下，本月内有望面向所有用户上线。

Switching gears to financial news

金融市场消息

• The Chinese path to modernization has put forward various new tasks for the central bank system in all aspects, with priorities given to yuan’s stability and financial stability, said Yi Gang, China’s central bank governor, on Tuesday at a forum. Full employment and economic growth will be achieved when the two tasks are accomplished, Yi added. 

  建设现代央行制度更好服务中国式现代化：央行行长易纲在2023中国金融学术年会暨中国金融论坛年会上发表讲话称，中国式现代化对建设现代中央银行制度提出了新的要求，任务包括方方面面，概括起来，最重要的任务就是实现币值稳定和金融稳定。这两项任务实现了，就能够促进充分就业和经济增长。 

• More than 10,000 Chinese mutual funds, which have disclosed their annual reports, recorded nearly 1.5 trillion yuan of losses last year due to falling stock markets. Just 3,155 out of 10,085 mutual funds were profitable last year, according to financial data provider Wind Information. Fixed-income products were more stable than equity. Currency funds achieved profits of 201 billion yuan while bond funds earned 86.3 billion yuan. Mixed funds recorded the biggest loss with 1.12 trillion yuan, followed by stock funds with over 580 billion yuan in the red.

  公募基金产品去年亏1.47万亿：公募基金2022年年报披露落下帷幕，据Wind数据，去年公募基金共收取管理费用合计1458.26亿元，但公募基金管理人旗下产品则合计亏损1.47万亿元。货币市场型基金保持“稳定输出”，2022年合计盈利2010亿元；债券型基金以863亿元盈利次之。亏损最多的是混合型基金，年内累计亏损1.12万亿元；而股票型基金、国际(QDII)基金、FOF基金全年亏损额分别为5801亿元、352亿元、171亿元。

• Over 80 percent of Chinese brokerages have posted a fall in revenue in 2022 from the year before. Only three out of the 26 securities firms to have published their financial reports for 2022 so far logged a jump in revenue from the year before and only two achieved profit growth, according to data from Wind Information. Data disclosed by China Securities Association showed that the industry is generally under pressure as both their revenue and net profit fell over 20 percent last year, amid a sluggish stock market. Combined revenue of the 140 securities firms in China stood at 350 billion yuan, down 21.4 percent, while total net profit fell 25.5 percent to come in at 142.3 billion yuan. 

  券商去年业绩整体承压：截至3日，共计26家上市券商或母公司披露了2022年年报。在市场波动背景下，证券行业去年整体业绩“回撤”。上述券商中，22家营收、归母净利润双降，占比超八成。从中证协率先披露的2022年证券公司“总成绩”来看，“承压”仍是本年报季的关键词，行业总体营收和净利润同比降幅均超过20%。140家证券公司2022年实现营业收入3949.73亿元，同比下降21.38%；实现净利润1423.01亿元，同比下降25.54%。 

Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market

股市收盘情况

• Chinese stocks ended mixed on Tuesday with the benchmark Shanghai Composite up 0.5 percent to stand above the 3300 mark, while the Shenzhen Component slid 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.7 percent and the TECH index dipped 1.6 percent.

  A股分化港股收跌：周二A股全天震荡分化，沪指重回3300点上方，创业板指震荡调整。截至收盘，沪指涨0.49%报3312点，深成指跌0.25%，创业板指跌0.76%。两市成交额13246亿元，续创年内新高。北向资金全天净卖出36.51亿元。港股低开后弱势震荡，截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.66％，报20274.59点，恒生科技指数跌1.61％，报4233.42点。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

• A mutual fund is a financial vehicle that pools assets from shareholders to invest in securities like stocks, bonds, money market instruments, and other assets. Mutual funds are operated by professional money managers, who allocate the fund's assets and attempt to produce capital gains or income for the fund's investors. 

  共同基金，国内又称为公募基金，是由基金经理的专业金融从业者管理，向社会投资者公开募集资金以投资于证券市场的营利性的公司型证券投资基金。共同基金购买股票、债券、商业票据、商品或衍生性金融商品，以获得利息、股息或资本利得。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI 

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑：李艳霞 

播音：李莹亮

撰稿：李莹亮

音频制作：李莹亮

设计：郑文静、廖苑妮

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