CBN丨China’s Q1 GDP grew by 4.5%, a “good start” to achieving a full-year strong recovery
21世纪经济报道 21财经APP
2023-04-18

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

大家好,我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours 

中国经济要闻

China's economy grew by 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, versus 2.9 percent in the last quarter of 2022, posting a steady economic rebound, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. 

The country's first-quarter gross domestic product came in at around 28.5 trillion yuan ($4.15 trillion). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China's GDP grew by 2.2 percent in the first three months of the year, the NBS said.

China's value-added industrial output grew by 3.9 percent in March from a year earlier after a 2.4 percent rise in the first two months, indicating that the recovery of China's industrial economy is picking up pace.

In the first quarter, value-added industrial output grew by 3 percent compared to the same period last year, while in the last quarter of 2022, it rose by 2.7 percent from a year earlier. 

The vigorous improvement and rebound in domestic consumption is also highlighted as retail sales of consumer goods reached 11.49 trillion yuan in the first quarter, up by 5.8 percent year-on-year, while in the last quarter of 2022, they declined 2.7 percent from a year earlier.

The retail sales in March alone increased 10.6 percent year-on-year, hitting a near two-year high, providing strong impetus for the country's economic recovery. 

Fixed-asset investment reached 10.73 trillion yuan, up by 5.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by an 8.8 percent growth in infrastructure investment on a yearly basis and a 7 percent growth in manufacturing investment. Investment in real estate development fell by 5.8 percent while private investment went up by 0.6 percent, according to the NBS.

Despite the improvement in key economic indicators, the NBS warned of pressures from a complicated international environment and insufficient domestic demand, saying the recovery trend is not yet solid. More efforts should be made to promote high-quality growth, fully unleash the potential of the domestic demand, deepen reforms and expand high-level opening-up.

Meanwhile, the NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said on Tuesday’s press release that Chinese economy does not appear deflated now and is not likely in the near future. In response to a question whether China will have deflation risks due to the slight growth in inflation, Fu said that deflation internationally is defined as a sustained decline in the general level of prices, often accompanied by falling money supply and economic recession. 

However, consumer prices rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, maintaining a moderate increase. In terms of money supply, broad M2 money supply increased 12.7 percent at the end of March, with a relatively fast growth. China’s economy grew by 4.5 percent in the first quarter, picking up from the fourth quarter of the previous year. “No aspect of the overall economic situation will appear deflated,” the spokesperson noted.

4月18日,一季度经济“成绩单”出炉。

国家统计局发布2023年一季度国民经济运行情况。初步核算,一季度国内生产总值284997亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长4.5%,比上年四季度环比增长2.2%,创下近四个季度最高水平。

一季度主要经济指标中,消费、工业、外贸、商品房销售等多方面数据都出现明显回暖。数据显示,一季度,规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.0%;社会消费品零售总额114922亿元,同比增长5.8%;全国固定资产投资(不含农户)107282亿元,同比增长5.1%。

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,总的来看,一季度随着疫情防控较快平稳转段,各项稳增长稳就业稳物价政策举措靠前发力,积极因素累积增多,国民经济企稳回升,开局良好。但也要看到,国际环境仍然复杂多变,国内需求不足制约明显,经济回升基础尚不牢固。

具体来看,供需两端同步回暖,一季度经济实现稳步回升。从供给端来看,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.0%,比上年四季度加快0.3个百分点。3月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.9%,比1-2月份加快1.5个百分点;环比增长0.12%。

从需求端来看,消费成为拉动经济增长的主动力。一季度社会消费品零售总额114922亿元,同比增长5.8%,上年四季度为下降2.7%,消费复苏迹象明显,服务性消费回升明显。3月份,社会消费品零售总额37855亿元,同比增长10.6%,比1-2月份加快7.1个百分点;环比增长0.15%。其中,除汽车以外的消费品零售额33591亿元,增长10.5%。

投资方面,固定资产投资平稳增长,高技术产业投资增长较快。一季度,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)107282亿元,同比增长5.1%,与上年全年持平。分领域看,基础设施投资增长8.8%,制造业投资增长7.0%,高技术产业投资增长16.0%。

数据还显示,全国房地产开发投资25974亿元,同比下降5.8%。全国商品房销售面积29946万平方米,下降1.8%;商品房销售额30545亿元,增长4.1%,其中住宅销售面积和销售额分别增长1.4%和7.1%。一季度房企到位资金34708亿元,同比下降9.0%,降幅较1-2月收窄6.2个百分点。

贸易方面,海关总署数据显示,一季度货物进出口总额98877亿元,同比增长4.8%。其中,出口56484亿元,增长8.4%;进口42393亿元,增长0.2%。

对于下阶段走势,付凌晖表示,我国经济增长的内生动力在逐步增强,宏观政策显效发力,经济运行有望整体好转。考虑到上年二季度受疫情影响基数比较低,今年二季度经济增速可能比一季度明显加快。三、四季度随着基数的升高,增速会比二季度有所回落。如果不考虑基数影响,总的来看全年经济增长有望呈现逐步回升态势。

针对中国经济有没有通缩风险的提问,付凌晖表示,总的来看,当前中国经济没有出现通缩,下阶段也不会出现通缩。

他说,国际上通货紧缩的定义是物价总水平持续下降,往往还伴随着货币供应量的减少和经济衰退。但从一季度我国经济运行情况看,一季度居民消费价格同比上涨1.3%,保持温和上涨。从货币供应量来看,3月末广义货币M2增长12.7%,保持较快增长。从经济增长情况看,一季度中国经济增长4.5%,比上年四季度回升。整体上都不存在通货紧缩的情况。

Highlight of the 133rd Canton Fair

广交会,新方位

Greater Bay Area, Greater future

新使命,大未来

Next on industry and company news

产业及公司新闻

Switching gears to financial news

金融市场消息

Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market

股市收盘情况

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI 

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑:李艳霞 

播音:李莹亮

撰稿:李莹亮

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(作者:李莹亮 编辑:李艳霞)