SFC Markets and Finance｜Jeffery Sachs: China will continue to have robust economic growth

南方财经全媒体记者 郑青亭 杨雨莱 北京、广州报道

Jeffery Sachs, a world-renowned professor of economics at Columbia University, attended the 2024 China Development Forum and told SFC journalist that China has a very strong growth potential and likelihood in the medium term. Especially for China's Belt and Road Initiative, he considers it one of the key vehicles for a win-win development for China and partner countries' rapid growth.

In terms of  the expansion of BRICS, he suggested it to be the right development because the BRICS is basically showing the world is multipolar instead of unipolar. 

The U.S. is unable to stop China's growth potential

SFC Markets and Finance: What's your outlook of China's economic development?

Jeffery Sachs: (China has a) very strong growth potential and likelihood in the medium term. Because all the fundamentals, high saving rate, very well trained and educated population,  cutting edge technology, good trade relations with most of the world, are all in place for continued rapid growth. The one barrier is the United States, which is trying to make harm. It's trying to put obstacles in the way of China. I think that this is a very misguided American policy, very inappropriate. All of these trade barriers and technology barriers are illegal, in my view, in international law.

But I don't think that they will stop China's growth potential, because the U.S. is only one modest part of the world economy and the rest of the world wants good relations with China. Of course China is eager for inward foreign investment, but China also should be continuing to promote the outward investment by leading Chinese companies, for example, in ASEAN or another partner countries as well. Because China's strengthened relations with the world economy is very, very important.  China is the low cost producer of many of the key technologies that the world needs，digital technologies, electric vehicle technologies, zero-carbon power generation technologies, long-distance distribution of electricity technologies. And so China is at the cutting edge and at the low cost of these technologies, the world needs them. And so China, I think it will continue to have robust economic growth based on this excellence of manufacturing and the continued rapid technological advancement. 

I think China's Belt and Road Initiative is one of the key vehicles for win-win development for China's rapid growth, because the Belt and Road enables rapid export growth in core areas of China's economy. But it also enables rapid growth of the partner countries by building the infrastructure and thereby making the partner countries more efficient and more able to export on their own. So I believe that a core strategy for China should be to continue to expand the Belt and Road Initiative.

The China-U.S. relation may remain difficult

SFC Markets and Finance: What's your view on the impact of U.S. elections on bilateral relationship?

Jeffery Sachs: The (U.S.) elections this year mean that the relations with China will remain difficult, because both leading candidates have an anti-China rhetoric and this is true of Biden. It's also true of Trump. Both parties are using anti-China rhetoric to try to stir up domestic support. I think it's a terrible policy. I think it's a mistake also because it treats the American people like children, as if the propaganda is enough to win support. So I'm not very impressed by the American political class. They don't know very much. They don't know anything about China, but they think that creating trouble is some way to political success. I hope that they learn finally that this is not the way to political success and it doesn't help the United States and certainly does not help the world economy. 

So I'm not very optimistic about this year in terms of rhetoric, maybe in terms of substance, it will be a little bit better, because certainly Biden doesn't want a crisis with China during the election year, that would be terrible for his reelection. So maybe an actual substance, it won't be so bad this year, but in rhetoric, a lot of American politicians will say a lot of stupid things.

The BRICS is the right development for the multipolar world

SFC Markets and Finance: Could you share your opinions on BRICS expansion?

Jeffery Sachs: The BRICS is a reflection of the fact that the U.S. overreached in foreign policy. Because after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, the American policy makers believe that it was a unipolar world, led by the United States without any rivals. And this led to a kind of arrogance in U.S. policy, in which the U.S. policy makers thought that they could not only lead the world, but actually chose the governments of other countries, intervened wherever they wanted to overthrow other governments, bombed other countries, created wars in other countries, like in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and I would add Ukraine. So this was a kind of U.S. arrogance. And, the BRICS emerged in part because the leading countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, said, "Wait a minute, we don't want to be led by the United States. We would like to have normal relations with the U.S., but we don't accept the unipolar world." and that's how the BRICS started.

But the United States persisted in very unwise policies, such as confiscating the financial assets of Russia, but of many other countries as well, of Iran, of Venezuela. So suddenly the idea that (whether) the U.S. dollar should remain at the center of the world currency system when the U.S. is weaponizing the dollar, became a central issue for other major economies. And that's now high on the BRICS agenda, which is, "We want normal relations with the U.S., but we don't want you to take our currency. We don't want you to impose sanctions. We don't want you to break the world trading system. And if the U.S. persists, we need other ways so that we are not under the thumb of US unilateral sanctions." And that is one of the reasons why new members also have joined, Egypt, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It seems to be the case. And I think that this is absolutely the right development, because it's basically saying to the United States, "The world is multipolar. You cannot run the world yourself. If you cooperate, you'll find cooperative counterparts. But if you don't cooperate, if you continue in an arrogant way, we will go about our business in our own manner and will do just fine." I think that's the real message of the race.

（市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本节目嘉宾意见仅代表本人观点。）

策划：于晓娜    

监制：施诗

责任编辑：李依农

记者：郑青亭 杨雨莱 

制作：蔡于恬

新媒体统筹：丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 曾昭发

海外运营监制: 黄燕淑

海外运营内容统筹: 黄子豪

海外运营编辑：庄欢 吴婉婕 龙李华 张伟韬

出品：南方财经全媒体集团